 Fuel shock, Middle East turmoil push global freight rates higher |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
04/30/2026 |
|
Rising fuel costs ?not demand ?are driving ocean and air cargo pricing into Q2
Global freight markets are being reshaped by surging fuel costs and ongoing disruption in the Middle East, even as underlying demand remains relatively soft.
Both ocean and air freight are entering Q2 with a widening disconnect between demand and pricing ?with rates climbing largely due to cost pressures rather than cargo volumes.
Fuel ?not demand ?is once again the primary driver of freight pricing. For carriers, that means margin protection through surges. For shippers, it means higher costs and volatility even in a soft market environment.
Ocean: Calm volumes, rising costs
Trans-Pacific eastbound (TPEB) ocean conditions are ?elatively calm,?with s capacity and muted seasonal demand typical for April.
?n the TPEB side, things are actually relatively calm,?upply is relatively s.?
However, that stability masks a key shift: rates are rising despite weak demand.
? Capacity remains ?ealthy?and largely in line with Q4 levels
? Blank sailings have increased, driven by higher fuel costs and low demand
? Carriers are rolling out emergency bunker surges (EBS) globally
? U.S. trades are seeing surge implementation in April
?emand is relatively muted in April ?but the fuel costs are impacting decisions on supply and impacting freight rates,?
Fuel-related cost increases ?tied to disruption in the Persian Gulf ?are pushing carriers to raise all-in rates, even without strong volume growth.
Operations: Local congestion, global ripple effects
Port operations remain mostly s in North America, with a few exceptions.
?verall, actually, in North America, it? pretty quiet,?
Savannah remains a pressure point, with vessel queues causing delays.
?hey?e seeing about six vessel waits on average, or about two-day delay,?noting weather and navigation constraints as key factors.
Globally, congestion persists in parts of Europe and Asia, while disruptions tied to the Middle East continue to ripple through supply chains.
? ~130 container ships remain stuck or delayed in the Persian Gulf region
? Carriers are avoiding the region despite a ceasefire announcement
? Cargo is increasingly being rerouted via land bridges out of UAE hubs
?e?e also seen about five container ships leave the Gulf in recent days. So that? a good sign,?adding that most carriers are still waiting for safe transit conditions.
Air freight: Severe disruption, surging rates
Air cargo markets remain under significant stress, disruption widespread.
?n air freight, we?e still seeing major disruption in the market due to the situation in the Middle East,?
Key pressure points include:
? Multiple airspace closures across the Middle East
? Reduced capacity at major hubs like Dubai and Doha
? Global widebody capacity down 11% vs. pre-Lunar New Year levels
?he fact that airlines have to reroute around those airspaces is, of course, creating major capacity issues,?
Fuel driving the market
Jet fuel prices have become the dominant force across air cargo.
?et fuel has effectively doubled year over year, about plus 78% since the ning of the crisis,?
Carriers are responding with aggressive surges and operational adjustments.
?hat they?e doing is that they?e immediately applying those fuel surges to the shippers,?he said.
Longer routing is also reducing payload capacity, further tightening supply and increasing the risk of shipment rollovers.
Rates vs. demand: A growing disconnect
A structural shift in global freight markets, where cost pressures ?not demand ?are driving pricing.
Ocean markets are seeing rate increases tied to fuel and carrier cost management, while air cargo is experiencing both capacity constraints and cost inflation.
?he big thing is not so much capacity right now as it is the price of fuel,?
Looking ahead expect:
? Elevated fuel surges to persist through Q2
? Continued volatility tied to Middle East developments
? Limited relief from seasonal capacity increases in air freight
? S but cost-inflated ocean markets
|
|
|
|
