A federal appeals court earlier this month foundthat Trump didn? have the authority to use the International EconomicEmergency Powers Act to levy the tariffs. The case is being appealed to theU.S. Supreme Court, and a top U.S. official has warned that a court loss couldmean that the government would have to refund that revenue.
?e would have to give a refund onabout half the tariffs which would be terrible for the treasury,?TreasurySecretary Scott Bessent told NBC? ?eet the Press?
In a court filing, Bessent assertedthat between $750 billion and $1 trillion in tariffs could be collected by June2026, which is when the Supreme Court is likely to issue its ruling.4 The court agreed to conduct an expedited review of Trump? tariffs,with arguments set for November.5
Government Has Other LegalAvenues for Tariffs
But even if the Supreme Court doesrule against the Trump tariffs, it doesn? mean that they would definitely goaway, wrote Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial. TheTrump administration has several other legal strategies that it can pursue torestore tariffs, he wrote. It? also unclear whether the court would in factrequire the U.S. to refund tariffs that have already collected.
?egardless of how the highest U.S.court rules, expect most of the current tariffs to remain in place,?Buchbinderwrote.
Not all tariffs are affected by thecourt ruling. The "reciprocal tariffs?that have been set on manytrading partners, and the tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico targetingfentanyl are the ones being challenged in court. Sector-specific tariffson things like foreign cars, steel, and copper will remainin place, since they were imposed using a different legal justification and arenot part of the court case.
