 It? not just Chinese imports. Peak season freight tradebound for U.S. slows to a crawl |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
09/19/2025 |
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Key Points
? Peak season for shipments from China to the U.S. across awide range of holiday season goods usually runs through October, but recenttrade data suggests it peaked this year in July.
? As Chinese exports to the U.S. slump, furniture, toys andsporting equipment, electrical devices and components, machinery, and plasticand plastic products are among the top categories of decline.
? NorthAmerica is the only global region to experience a decline in container volumesduring the 2025 trade war period, and after massive frontloading of inventoryearly in the year, logistics experts say there is little freight left to moveinto the country.
Typically,this is the time of year when shipments into the U.S. are peaking ahead of theholidays, but 2025 is a different story.
As Chinese exports continue to plunge, overallfreight trade to the U.S. has slowed to a crawl.
Importsfrom China have faced three straight weeks of 27% year-over-year declines,according to data from Vizion, and the latest ocean freight bookings data showsthat a traditional rush of freight containers into the country in lateSeptember is not likely to materialize.
?ormally,we would expect a peak starting from the last week of September ahead of GoldenWeek,?Golden Week is a major holiday week in China during which manybusinesses are closed. ?o far, there are no clear signs or major orders in themarket indicating this tr,?she said.
Thetop five product segments contributing to the reduction in Chinese exports tothe U.S., according to data analysis by Vizion, are furniture, toys andsporting equipment, electrical devices and components, machinery, and plasticand plastic products.
Thetoys category is a good example of what logistics professionals describe as aflatlining of trade between the U.S. and China.
?oysand sporting equipment are on tr with 2024, but in the most recent 10 weeksafter the peak, it has tred flat at an average of 20% less volume comparedto last year? peak season,?said Kyle Herson, CEO of Vizion.
Thereare some exceptions to the overall tr, such as rubber and organic chemicals,that match or slightly exceed 2024 booking activity volume since May, a monthwhen the frontloading of inventory caused afreight container volume spike as President Trump offered short-term extensionsof effective dates for tariffs first announced in April.
Recentyears have also included slowdowns in Chinese freight shipments ahead of GoldenWeek for a variety of factors ?2024 had its own frontloading period ahead ofthe threat of port strikes in the U.S., and in 2023, fears of consumer demandled to lower than typical shipping activity.
Butthis year, it? the trade war? early peak season front loading and a steadydecrease in orders to a more modulated level since that is the story infreight, according to data from SONAR.
oceanfreight out of China for U.S.-based retailers, wrote in a recent note toclients that the impact of the trade war brought a ?ery short lived, butstrong spike in late May and early June.?
ThePort of Los Angeles reported a record number of containers asrecently as July as a result of the tariff pause.
theperiod after the spike as being followed by ? swift decline and slowrecovery.?
?anufacturersare basically seeing a very slow gradual increase even before Chinese GoldenWeek,?its note to clients reported. ?any customers have reported increasinginventory levels in the U.S. and paused shipping temporarily.?
Accordingto HLS, ocean carriers have so far announced 35 blank sailings for October. TheONE alliance of ocean carriers including CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, andOOCL susped an Asia to U.S.service route between multiple Chinese ports and ports in LongBeach and Oakland, California, for the first week of September. Less shipsmeans less container capacity, and that also pushes ocean freight rates higher,with a $1,000 general rate increase (GRI) per forty-foot container startingSeptember 15.
Thetrade war? continuing significant negative impact on North American trade canbe seen in the fact that North America is the only region which has experiencednegative freight container volume growth during the trade war period, accordingto Sea-Intelligence.
?ypically,ocean peak season, when the bulk of holiday goods are shipped, starts in Julyand continues through October,?said Noah Hoffman, vice president of NorthAmerican Surface Transportation for C.H. Robinson. ?his year, itpeaked in July.?
TheNational Retail Federation? new Global Port Tracker, produced with HackettAssociates, shows that after near record peak season numbers during the summer,import cargo volume at the nation? biggest container ports is fore to?teadily decline for the remainder of the year.?
?e have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with anumber of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than theearlier 10% tariffs,?NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policyJonathan Gold said in a statement released with the new trade data. ?e alsocontinue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope ofproducts. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariffincreases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible tomake the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.?
?hetrade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic,?said HackettAssociates founder Ben Hackett in the NRF release.
Augustinventory data compiled by the Logistics Managers?Index,which tracks inventory and warehousing metrics, warns of the decrease infreight volumes having a trickle down effect on trains, trucks, and warehousesthat make money by storing or moving trade.
?hefact that we saw freight capacity go up in August of all months suggests thatthere isn? much freight left to move,?said Zay Rogers, associateprofessor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, a member ofthe LMI. ?he lack of freight right before peak season is probably acombination of some inventories having been pulled forward already, andpotentially less being in the tem overall,?he said.
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