 US retailers anticipate softening in import demand at turn of year |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
11/16/2020 |
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Peak season 2020 is shaping up to be the busiest ever as retailers stock up for strong consumer demand from online as well as in-person shopping, but US import growth will soften as this year s and 2021 s, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Monday.
The NRF also projects that import growth will resume ning in February as year-over-year import volumes will be benchmarked off the plunge in imports that occurred last year when factories in China shut during the initial outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The virus then spread to the US, which generated economic lockdowns in April and May.
US imports in the July through October peak-shipping season increased an estimated 6.1 percent from the same months last year, according to the NRF. Peak season 2020 import volumes will likely be a record once the group verifies its October numbers, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is published by the NRF and Hackett Associates.
October numbers released Monday by PIERS, a JOC.com sister company within IHS Markit, show that US imports in October increased 23.7 percent from October 2019.
¡°Part of this surge was fueled by restocking after retail sales rebounded this summer, and part could be making sure there aren¡¯t shortages if we see panic buying again,¡± Jon Gold, NRF¡¯s vice president of supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement.
According to Global Port Tracker, US imports in September, the last month with its verified numbers, increased 12.5 percent from September 2019. October imports are projected to be up 6.5 percent year over year, while November imports are projected to increase 0.2 percent from November 2019.
Imports this winter fore to be down year over year
However, US imports in December are projected to decline 8.2 percent year over year, while January is expected to fall 3.7 percent. February will see a slight 0.9 percent gain compared with relatively strong imports during the same months this past year before COVID-19 struck China and then the US.
¡°As we near the of a difficult year in terms of health, trade, and politics, we have witnessed record-breaking statistics that have been virtually unpredic,¡± Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the statement.
Hackett, however, said the strength of any economic recovery in 2021 will be determined by progress in containing the vi
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