Container Shipping Rates Keep Dropping as Tariff Surge Runs Out of Steam
Source
American Shipper
Post Date
08/22/2025
Drewry? World Container Index decreased 4% marking the tenth consecutive week of decline as the market continues to stabilize following a period of high volatility.
The market turbulence began after US tariffs were announced in April, which triggered rate surges from May through early June.
Subsequently, rates saw a heavy decline until mid-July, when the downward tr began to lose momentum.
According to Drewry, the accelerated purchasing phase by US retailers that d an early peak season has concluded, with retailers now scaling back procurement in response to a slowing US economy and increased tariff costs.
Asia?urope trade lanes also saw declines, Despite healthy demand and port delays in Europe, growing vessel capacity surplus continues to push rates downward in this corridor.
Looking ahead, Drewry? Container Foreer anticipates a weakening supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which will likely cause further spot rate contraction. The timing and volatility of future rate changes will dep significantly on potential new Trump tariffs and capacity adjustments related to US penalties on Chinese vessels.
The broader impact of tariff policies is already visible in cargo volumes. According to the National Retail Federation? Global Port Tracker report, import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to 2025 5.6%below 2024? volume.
?ariffs are ning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves,?warned NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold. ?mall businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that markets by lower in tariffs, not raising them.?
This uncertain trade environment has d disruptions across global shipping networks. Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, described the situation as a ?ither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs?causing confusion for importers, exporters, and consumers alike.
The effects of these policies can be seen in recent port activity. While U.S. ports handled 1.96 million TEU in June (down 8.4% year-over-year), July volumes surged to a projected 2.3 million TEU as retailers accelerated imports ahead of August tariffs.
There main der of 2025 is fore to see significant volume declines, with November expected to hit 1.71 million TEU?he lowest total since April 2023.
