 Container import roller coaster: down, up, down ¡ up? |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
05/26/2020 |
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U.S. container imports are certainly on a wild ride.
The numbers plunged after the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. They briefly bounced back when delayed bookings were loaded after China came back online. Then they sank again after social-distancing rules shut down U.S. businesses and container carriers ¡°blanked¡± (canceled) sailings.
Now, it looks like there could be at least some momentum in the positive direction, which might mean that container lines that blanked around 20% of inbound capacity in May and June could cancel fewer sailings starting in July.
Some importers may be concluding that they actually pulled back too much on cargo orders in light of renewed demand after states began reing. As a result, carriers may have overshot a bit with their U.S.-bound cancellations.
THE Alliance (Hapag Lloyd, ONE, Yang Ming) announced Thursday that ¡°in view of increasing demand,¡± it was reinstating two trans-Pacific sailings: the voyage of the YM Mandate, with a capacity of 6,572 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), leaving China May 29 and arriving in Los Angeles on June 16, and the sailing of the 10,000-TEU Seaspan Brightness, departing China May 25 and arriving in Los Angeles June 10.
Most current trans-Pacific sailings are full, with excess cargo having to be ¡°rolled¡± to subsequent sailings.
Meanwhile, the premium trans-Pacific service of Matson (NYSE: MATX) recently added two extra loaders ¡°in order to meet strong demand,¡± including a sailing by the 2,824-TEU Capt. Thanasis arriving in Long Beach on May 26. An extra loader is an unscheduled extra sailing, the opposite of a blank sailing.
If demand exceeds the supply of the remaining trans-Pacific services that haven¡¯t been blanked, spot rates will rise, at least temporarily.
The caveat is that all of these green shoots may be temporary. The world¡¯s largest carrier, Maersk Line, expects volume to be down 20%-25% this month and next and is providing no guidance on the third quarter.
It¡¯s entirely possible that high unemployment, business bankruptcies and loss of consumer confidence could propel America¡¯s container import roller coaster further
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